Saturday 12 September 2009

Asian economies recovering, bubble concerns returning

Japan's second quarter economic growth has been revised downwards. AFP/CNA reports:

Japan's economy rebounded at a weaker pace than first thought in the second quarter as companies cut investment and stockpiles amid a slow recovery from the worst recession in decades, the government said on Friday.

The world's second-largest economy grew 0.6 per cent in April-June from the previous quarter, worse than an initial estimate of 0.9 per cent, data showed. Annualised growth was revised down to 2.3 per cent from 3.7 per cent.

Still, it represents growth. Indeed, there has been no lack of growth among Asian economies lately.

India's industrial production grew 6.8 percent in July from a year ago.

And Bloomberg reports that China's expansion is strengthening.

China’s expansion strengthened in August as industrial production, lending and retail sales exceeded forecasts, reinforcing a global recovery from the deepest recession since World War II...

China’s factory output climbed 12.3 percent last month from a year earlier, the most since August 2008, the statistics bureau said yesterday. Retail sales rose 15.4 percent, the biggest gain this year after accounting for seasonal distortions. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, expanded by a record 28.53 percent...

Local-currency new loans were 410.4 billion yuan ($60 billion) in August, up from 355.9 billion yuan in July, the central bank reported. Urban fixed-asset investment accelerated, climbing 33 percent in the eight months to Aug. 31 from a year earlier...

Trade data yesterday showed shipments abroad fell a more- than-estimated 23.4 percent in August from a year earlier, the biggest drop in three months. Exports rose a seasonally adjusted 3.4 percent from July.

With the economy recovering, so are financial markets.

Shanghai’s stock index closed 2.2 percent higher yesterday, paring losses last month that were stoked by concern that a slowdown in new lending would damp growth. The index is still up 64 percent this year.

As is the Chinese real estate market.

Investment in real-estate development grew 14.7 percent in the first eight months after an 11.6 percent gain in the first seven months, the statistics bureau said on Sept. 10. House prices in 70 cities rose 2 percent in August, the fastest gain in 11 months.

But the recovery in markets has reignited bubble concerns.

The reacceleration in credit growth may deepen concern among some observers at the danger of asset-price inflation. Bank of China Ltd. Vice President Zhu Min warned on Sept. 10 that liquidity may cause “bubbles in commodities, stocks and real estate.”

And it is not just China. From Channel NewsAsia:

Market watchers have warned of a possible asset bubble in Asia's property market, due to hot money flowing into the region.

At the annual forum organised by Singapore developer CapitaLand, it was discussed that policymakers need to closely monitor leverage levels to prevent another US-style sub-prime crisis.

China's property sector is booming, growing about 35 per cent in August from about 20 per cent in July.

The Hong Kong and Singapore property markets have also rebounded strongly in recent months.

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