Tuesday, 21 July 2009

US leading index up for third straight month

The US economy is climbing out of recession, if the Conference Board’s leading index is anything to go by. Bloomberg reports:

The index of U.S. leading indicators rose in June for a third consecutive month, reinforcing signs the economy may be emerging from the worst recession in five decades.

The Conference Board’s gauge of the economic outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.7 percent, more than forecast, after a revised 1.3 percent gain in May, the New York- based research group said today. It is the first time the index has climbed for three months in a row since 2004.

The coincident index is still falling though.

The Conference Board’s index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, dropped 0.2 percent after decreasing 0.3 percent the prior month. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter of when recessions begin and end, follows this index to help it time downturns. The index tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and production.

Investors, however, aren’t waiting for the coincident index to turn up.

Stocks, one component of the leading index, extended gains after the report. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which has soared more than 40 percent since its March 6 intraday low, rose 1.1 percent to close at 951.13 today in New York. An advance in stocks last month contributed 0.1 percentage point to the leading index.

1 comment:

Slice said...

The economy has to recover at some stage. Most likely towards the end of the year.

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