OECD leading indicators signal deep slowdown, Chinese and Japanese exports shrink

The latest OECD composite leading indicators show that developed economies face deep slowdowns.

The CLI for the OECD area decreased by 1.3 point in November 2008 and was 7.3 points lower than in November 2007. The CLI for the United States fell by 1.7 point in November and was 8.7 points lower than a year ago. The Euro area’s CLI decreased by 1.1 point in November and stood 7.6 points lower than a year ago. In November, the CLI for Japan decreased by 1.6 point, and was 5.5 points lower than a year ago.

Emerging economies will not escape the slowdown.

The CLI for China decreased 3.1 points in November 2008 and was 12.9 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for India fell by 1.2 point in November 2008 and was 7.6 points lower than in November 2007. The CLI for Russia decreased by 4.3 points in November and was 13.8 points lower than a year ago. In November 2008 the CLI for Brazil decreased by 1.1 point and was 2.9 points lower than a year ago.

Indeed, the latest Chinese trade data released today show the developing trend clearly. From AFP/CNA:

Chinese exports extended their decline into a second month in December as the global crisis continued to impact its heavily trade-dependent economy, state media reported Tuesday...

Exports from the world's fourth-largest economy dropped 2.8 per cent in December from a year earlier to 111.2 billion US dollars, the paper said...

Imports in December were down by an even steeper 21.3 per cent to 72.2 billion US dollars, the paper said, suggesting a rapid contraction in domestic economic activity.

Japan also reported today a fall in exports. From Bloomberg:

Japan’s current-account surplus narrowed for a ninth month in November as exports slumped by a record in the wake of the global recession...

Exports fell 26.5 percent in November from a year earlier, the most since comparable data were first made available in 1985, today’s report showed. Imports slid 13.7 percent.