Apart for some disappointing data coming out of the UK, yesterday's economic data were relatively optimistic.
In the US, ADP's data yesterday provide a preview of Friday's jobs report. From Reuters:
The jobs report from ADP Employer Services, a private employment service, on Wednesday showed U.S. private employers added 158,000 jobs in November and boosted some analysts' expectations for the government's reading on November nonfarm payrolls, to be released on Friday.
Hopes for a stabilisation of the housing market also got a boost yesterday.
Also on Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association said U.S. mortgage applications rose sharply last week, fueled by a surge in home refinancing loans as interest rates sunk to their lowest levels in more than a year.
The MBA said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week ended December 1 increased 8.1 percent to 647.6 from the previous week's 599.
Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 5.98 percent, down 0.15 percentage point from the previous week, the lowest since the week ended October 7, 2005, when it stood at the same level. Interest rates were also below year-earlier levels of 6.32 percent.
Meanwhile in the UK, industrial production in October was disappointing. Reuters reports:
Wednesday's data from the Office for National Statistics showed industrial output fell 0.8 percent on the month, confounding expectations of a 0.1 percent rise...
Manufacturing output fell 0.4 percent, its biggest contraction in a year and wrongfooting analysts who had expected a 0.2 percent increase.
And this as the Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index fell 9 points in November even as the BRC Shop Price Index for November rose 1.81 percent from November 2005, the fifth consecutive month of year-on-year increase and the largest rise since April 2004.
Manufacturing may be getting wobbly in Germany too. From Bloomberg:
German factory orders unexpectedly dropped for a second month in October, led by a slump in domestic demand for cars and trucks.
Orders fell 1.1 percent from September when they declined 3 percent, the Economy and Technology Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists expected an increase of 1.1 percent, the median of 39 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed. From a year earlier, orders advanced 10 percent.
But at least retail-sales growth accelerated in the euro zone, according to the Bloomberg retail PMI.
An index of retail sales in the economy of the dozen nations sharing the euro rose to a seasonally adjusted 53.7, the highest in four months, from 52.8 in October, a survey of more than 1,000 retail executives compiled for Bloomberg LP by NTC Economics Ltd. showed today. A level above 50 indicates growth.
There was also good news in Japan. From Bloomberg:
Japan's broadest index of future economic activity rose to a four-month high in October, underscoring the central bank's view that Asia's largest economy will keep expanding. Stocks gained.
The leading index, which comprises measures such as machinery orders, climbed to 50 percent, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. A number at 50 or higher indicates the economy will grow in three to six months.
But the growth outlook for Japan obviously cannot compare with that of Asia's second largest economy, even after a planned slowdown. From AFP/CNA:
China has set an official economic growth target for next year of about eight percent despite expectations the expansion will be much faster, a senior government economist said.
"The central government set the annual target at about eight percent," said Zheng Xinli, vice director of the economic policy research office under China's top political body, the politburo...
But Zheng said he believed Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2007 would again be much higher.
"I personally think GDP growth next year will be about 10 percent," he told reporters outside a business forum in Beijing.
At least China's trade surplus did drop in November. Xinhua Online reports:
China's monthly trade surplus stood at 23.37 billion U.S. dollars in November, slightly dropping from October's 23.83 billion U.S. dollars, this year's fifth monthly record high, according to the latest Customs figures on Wednesday.
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