US consumer sentiment, retail sales fall, oil prices climb to record high

The US consumer slowdown looks to be under way. From Reuters:

The University of Michigan's preliminary reading on consumer sentiment in July was 83.0, down from June's final 84.9 reading, said sources who saw the subscription-only report...

This data, coupled with news from the Commerce Department that June retail sales fell 0.1 percent -- the first decline since February -- raised concerns of a economic slowdown.

... When gas sales were stripped away, retail sales fell 0.2 percent.

Retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts advanced 0.3 percent compared with an upwardly revised 0.7 percent increase in May, previously reported as a 0.5 percent gain...

Sales of motor vehicles and parts dropped 1.4 percent and when cars, parts and gasoline were excluded, retail sales edged up by 0.1 percent.

The news on the inflation front was a little better though.

The University of Michigan's preliminary July reading on one-year U.S. inflation expectations was 3.1 percent, down from 3.3 percent in June.

Median expectations for inflation over a five-year horizon edged down to 2.8 percent in July from 2.9 percent in June...

It got more goods news on the inflation front on Friday after Labor Department data showed that import prices rose just 0.1 percent last month, below expectations, as petroleum costs slipped for the first time in fourth months.

Excluding a 1.4 percent drop in the cost of petroleum imports, import prices rose 0.4 percent, partly reflecting a big jump in metals prices, the Labor Department said.

But with the jump in oil prices to record highs in recent days, that may not be true for long.

Crude oil rose to a record as concern mounted over escalating violence in the Middle East, the source of 30 percent of the world's oil...

Crude oil for August delivery rose 33 cents, or 0.4 percent, to close at a record $77.03 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $78.40, the highest intraday price since trading began in 1983. Prices are up 4 percent this week and are 33 percent higher than a year ago...

Brent crude oil for August settlement rose 58 cents, or 0.8 percent, to close at a record $77.27 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures exchange. Futures touched $78.03 a barrel, the highest intraday price since the contract was introduced in 1988.

And some of the analysts in the report say oil at US$100 a barrel no longer looks far-fetched.