Wednesday 26 October 2005

US stocks fall with consumer sentiment but German business confidence rises

After the euphoria on Monday over President George Bush's nomination of Ben Bernanke as Federal Reserve chairman, the US stock market yesterday went back to the uneasy mood that has characterised much of this October's trading.

The Dow Jones industrial average slipped 7.13 points, or 0.07 percent, to end at 10,377.87. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dipped 2.84 points, or 0.24 percent, to close at 1,196.54. The technology-laced Nasdaq Composite Index fell 6.38 points, or 0.30 percent, to finish at 2,109.45.

The fall in consumer confidence no doubt weighed on the market, as Reuters reports.

The Conference Board said its index of consumer sentiment fell in October to 85.0 from an upwardly revised September reading of 87.5. A Reuters poll of economists had on average forecast a rise in October to 88.1

However, weekly chain store sales provided a more optimistic picture.

Chain store retail sales fell 0.2 percent in the week ended October 22, compared with a 0.4 percent increase the previous week, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS said in a joint report.

However, compared with the same week a year ago, sales were up 3.6 percent -- the best showing since early September, after a 3.3 percent rise the preceding week, ICSC and UBS said.

Redbook Research, an independent company, said U.S. chain store sales rose 1.0 percent in the third week of October from the same period in September. Redbook said sales at major retailers rose 3.6 percent on a year-over-year basis for the week ended October 22.

Continued resilience in the housing market would also help.

Sales of existing homes were unchanged last month at a 7.28 million unit pace, with strong post-Katrina sales in the South helping offset weaker activity elsewhere, the National Association of Realtors said.

August sales of previously owned homes were downwardly revised to a 7.28 million unit pace. Analysts had expected overall September sales to decline to a 7.20 million unit pace from the originally reported 7.29 million pace in August.

Existing home sales would have been lower in September without the strong purchase activity reported for areas around the hurricane-hit zone, the Realtors' chief economist said. For example, while sales dropped 85 percent in New Orleans, Baton Rouge reported a 150 percent increase, the group said.

And Calculated Risk highlights rising home inventories and falling prices.

There was good news in Germany yesterday, though.

The Ifo confidence index rose to 98.7, the highest since October 2000, from 96 in September, the Munich-based research institute said in a statement today. Economists expected a reading of 96.1, the median of 40 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey showed. The euro gained and investors increased bets that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates by June.

The report is at least the fifth in the past week to show accelerating growth in the dozen nations sharing the euro. French executives and Italian consumers also became more optimistic this month. Faster growth would add to the concerns of ECB officials who say crude prices that have risen 41 percent this year may filter through to wages and prices, setting off an inflationary spiral.

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