Monday 27 December 2004

Short-term SGS bonds more attractive than long-term ones

fundsupermart.com thinks that short-term Singapore government bonds are now more attractive than long-term ones on a risk-adjusted basis. The following is an excerpt from its article "Time To Take Profits On Your Long Term SGS Bonds!":

In the last 12 months, Singapore government bond yield curves have flattened with yields of longer-term SGS bonds falling and yields of shorter-term SGS bonds rising. This means that the gap between the yield of longer term bonds and short-term instruments have narrowed substantially. This suggests that on a risk-adjusted basis, short-term instruments look more attractive. Thus, it would be beneficial for investors to take profit on their longer-term SGS bonds (i.e. 15-year benchmark SGS bonds) and invest in shorter-term bonds (where yields had risen).

I tend to favour shorter-term bonds myself as I think long-term bond yields have fallen too fast, probably due to strengthening demand for Singapore dollar assets in anticipation of the currency's appreciation.

However, if capital continues to flow into the market in anticipation of further strength in the Singapore currency, or if the Singapore economy weakens faster than expected, yields along the entire curve may fall, in which case long-term bonds provide a bigger bang for the buck. The other problem with short-term bonds is that their yields are actually lower than Singapore's inflation rate!

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