Monday, 11 February 2019

Is a global economic recession coming?

Most economists do not expect a global economic recession soon.

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, wrote in an article in The Guardian that there “may be enough positive factors to make this a relatively decent, if mediocre, year for the global economy”.

Still, he thinks that there are risks that “the synchronised slowdown of 2019 could lead to a global growth stall and sharp market downturn in 2020”.

Similarly, Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deustche Bank Securities, thinks that if a “significant escalation of trade tensions” between the US and China, a hard Brexit, in which the UK leaves the European Union with no trade deal in place, and a “sharp slowdown” in Chinese economic growth all occur together, “the world economy could face a downturn rivaling that which occurred during the great recession a decade ago”.

However, Hooper only places a 5 to 10 percent chance of any of these scenarios occurring by themselves, and the chance of all of them occurring together at less than 1 percent.

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